Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska

Metadata:


Identification_Information:
Dataset_Identifier:
gov.noaa.cpc:CPC-TEMP-DLY-PTO-6-to-10-v2001
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator:
Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
Publication_Date:
1978
Title:
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 Day Probabilistic Temperature Outlook for the Contiguous United States and Alaska
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form:
map
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place:
Maryland
Publisher:
Climate Prediction Center
Online_Linkage:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Online_Linkage:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/index.php
Description:
Abstract:
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues 6 to 10 day probabilistic temperature outlooks for the United States. The 6-10 day Outlook gives the confidence that a forecaster has, given as a probability, that the observed temperature, averaged over upcoming days 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 will be in the range of one of three possible categories below (B), normal (N), or above (A). For any calendar 5-day period, these categories can be defined by separating the 30 years of the climatology period, 1981-2010 (30 years), into the coldest 10 years, the middle 10 years, and the warmest 10 years. Because each of these categories occurs 1/3 of the time (10 times) during 1981-2010, for any particular calendar 5-day period, the probability of any category being selected at random from the 1981-2010 set of 30 observations is one in three (1/3), or 33.33%. This is also called the climatological probability. The sum of the climatological probabilities of the three categories is 100%.
Purpose:
Used for business and economic planning, particularly when used with 30 year base period means.
Time_Period_of_Content:
Time_Period_Information:
Range_of_Dates/Times:
Beginning_Date:
1978
Ending_Date:
Present
Currentness_Reference:
ground condition
Status:
Progress:
Complete
Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency:
Daily
Spatial_Domain:
Bounding_Coordinates:
West_Bounding_Coordinate:
-180.00
East_Bounding_Coordinate:
-66.00
North_Bounding_Coordinate:
72.00
South_Bounding_Coordinate:
24.00
Keywords:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:
ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme_Keyword:
climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:
NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Air Temperature
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Boundary Layer Temperature
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Air Temperature
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Temperature Anomalies
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:
None
Theme_Keyword:
climate outlooks
Theme_Keyword:
6 to 10 day outlook
Theme_Keyword:
6 to 10 day forecast
Theme_Keyword:
6-10 day outlook
Theme_Keyword:
6-10 day forecast
Theme_Keyword:
6-10 day temperature outlook
Theme_Keyword:
6-10 day temperature forecast
Theme_Keyword:
6 to 10 day temperature outlook
Theme_Keyword:
6 to 10 day temperature forecast
Theme_Keyword:
extended weather forecast
Theme_Keyword:
climate forecast
Theme_Keyword:
6-10 day weather outlook
Place:
Place_Keyword_Thesaurus:
NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Place_Keyword:
Continent > North America > United States of America
Stratum:
Stratum_Keyword_Thesaurus:
NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Stratum_Keyword:
Vertical Location > Boundary layer
Thematic_Layer_Identification:
Number_of_Thematic_Layers:
2
Layer_Name:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:
ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme_Keyword:
climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Layer_Name:
Theme:
Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus:
NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Air Temperature
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Boundary Layer Temperature
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Surface Air Temperature
Theme_Keyword:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Temperature > Temperature Anomalies
Access_Constraints:
None
Use_Constraints:
Acknowledgment of the Data Originator when using the data item as a source.
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:
Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
Contact_Position:
Scott Handel
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:
mailing and physical
Address:
5830 University Research Ct.
City:
College Park
State_or_Province:
Maryland
Postal_Code:
20740
Country:
United States of America
Contact_Voice_Telephone:
(301) 683-3454
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:
scott.handel@noaa.gov
Hours_of_Service:
09:00 - 5:00 PM Eastern
Browse_Graphic:
Browse_Graphic_File_Name:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
Browse_Graphic_File_Description:
6 to 10 day temperature probability outlook
Browse_Graphic_File_Type:
GIF
Data_Set_Credit:
Jon Hoopingarner is the creator of this dataset.
Program_Affiliation:
Program_Name:
Climate Prediction Center
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Data_Quality_Information:
Attribute_Accuracy:
Attribute_Accuracy_Report:
The accuracy of this dataset is vetted through a daily verification process (which compares the forecast data with observations).
Logical_Consistency_Report:
This product has demonstrated long term skill with respect to climatological forecasts.
Completeness_Report:
Quality control of this dataset includes: 1) Making sure probability values add up to 100, 2) Making sure that negative probability values are not present, 3) Making sure that category values have a value of 1.0, 2.0, or 3.0. All users of this data are encouraged to follow steps (1), (2), and (3) above and contact the Climate Prediction Center if the data does not pass these quality control criteria.
Lineage:
Process_Step:
Process_Description:
These data are produced based on interpolation of official 6 to 10 day temperature probability maps. The forecast maps are produced using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (N-AWIPS) General Environmental Meteorological Package (GEMPAK) software. GEMPAK software is used to produce Virtual Graphics Files (VGF) of the 6-10 day forecasts. These VGF files are then interpolated to stations via Barnes objective analysis (using the GEMPAK grphgd subroutine). These data are then converted to ASCII format using the GEMPAK gdlist subroutine. The GIS shapefiles are produced by converting the VGF files to an ascii listing of the location of the vertices of the contours that were drawn on the map. Python back-end coding using ArcMap libraries was then used to convert the ascii file to a shapefile with the appropriate attributes.
Process_Date:
2011
Process_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:
Climate Prediction Center
Contact_Person:
Scott Handel
Contact_Position:
Meteorologist
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:
physical
Address:
5830 University Research Ct.
City:
College Park
State_or_Province:
MD
Postal_Code:
20740
Contact_Voice_Telephone:
(301) 683-3454
Contact_TDD/TTY_Telephone:
(301) 683-3454
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:
scott.handel@noaa.gov
Hours_of_Service:
9 AM to 5 PM
Contact_Instructions:
Call the office
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Spatial_Data_Organization_Information:
Direct_Spatial_Reference_Method:
Point
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Entity_and_Attribute_Information:
Overview_Description:
Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated, where "B" and blue colors indicate "below-normal" and "A" and orange-red colors indicate "above normal". The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. The numbers labeling the contours separating different shades gives the probability that the indicated category (A, B, or N) will occur. The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below (B) category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%. In the event that the N category is greater than 33.33%, the probabilities of both the "A" and "B" categories is each reduced by 1/2 the amount that the "N" category exceeds 33.33%. When the probability of "A", or "B" reaches 63.33% or higher, the odds of the opposite category reach a minimum allowed value of 3.33%, while the odds of the middle category are allowed to drop below 33.33%. The dashed contours on the map give the average of the temperature over the set of 30 observations for the calendar 5-day period during 1981-2010, in degrees Farenheit. The maps have associated data files that are produced in ascii format and contain the following fields: Lines 1 and 2) Header lines that contain parameter listings and column headings. A listing of parameters are indicated below: STN: Station World Meteorological Organization (WMO) number; YYMMDD: Forecast Issuance Date (for data created before August 2008) Center of Forecast Valid Period (for data created after July 2008); HHMM: Undefined; TBLW: Probability of below normal temperature (Units are 0-100); TNRM: Probability of near normal temperature (Units are 0-100); TABV: Probability of above normal temperature (Units are 0-100); TCAT: Temperature Category (Units are 1-3; where 1=below, 2=near, 3=above); PBLW: Probability of below median precipitation (Units are 0-100); PNRM: Probability of near median precipitation (Units are 0-100); PABV: Probability of above median precipitation (Units are 0-100); PCAT: Precipitation Category (Units are 1-3; where 1=below, 2=near, 3=above); The shapefiles have the following attributes: Fcst_Date: The date the forecast was made; Start_Date: The starting date of the valid period; End_Date: The ending date of the valid period; Prob: The probability value associated with the contour; Cat: The category, Above or Below (Normal) that the contour is associated with.
Entity_and_Attribute_Detail_Citation:
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
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Distribution_Information:
Distributor:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact_Position:
Scott Handel
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:
mailing and physical
Address:
5830 University Research Ct
City:
College Park
State_or_Province:
Maryland
Postal_Code:
20740
Country:
United States of America
Contact_Voice_Telephone:
(301) 683-3454
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:
scott.handel@noaa.gov
Distribution_Liability:
The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. NWS is providing this data "as is," and NWS disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will NWS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. As required by 17 U.S.C. 403, third parties producing copyrighted works consisting predominantly of the material appearing in NWS Web pages must provide notice with such work(s) identifying the NWS material incorporated and stating that such material is not subject to copyright protection. Refer the NOAA National Weather Service disclaimer; http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
Standard_Order_Process:
Digital_Form:
Digital_Transfer_Information:
Format_Name:
ASCII
File_Decompression_Technique:
zip
Digital_Transfer_Option:
Online_Option:
Computer_Contact_Information:
Network_Address:
Network_Resource_Name:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Network_Resource_Name:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/us_tempprcpfcst/index.php
Fees:
None
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date:
20130122
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization:
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Contact_Position:
Scott Handel
Contact_Address:
Address_Type:
mailing and physical
Address:
5830 University Research Ct.
City:
College Park
State_or_Province:
Maryland
Postal_Code:
20740
Country:
United States of America
Contact_Voice_Telephone:
(301) 683-3454
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address:
scott.handel@noaa.gov
Metadata_Standard_Name:
FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version:
FGDC-STD-001-1998
Metadata_Extensions:
Online_Linkage:
http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/metadataresource/metadata-references/files/ncddcmdprofile_v2.pdf
Profile_Name:
Content Specification for Metadata in the National Coastal Data Development Center's Data Catalog Version 2.0
Metadata_Extensions:
Online_Linkage:
http://www.fgdc.gov/standards/projects/FGDC-standards-projects/csdgm_rs_ex/MetadataRemoteSensingExtens.pdf
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